By Ty Joplin
On Sep 22, 2018, a military parade conducted in Ahvaz, Iran meant to memorialize the beginning of the Iran-Iraq War ended in Tragedy. Four gunmen dressed as soldiers opened fire and began indiscriminately shooting into the crowd of fleeing civilians and soldiers. At least 29 are reported to have been killed while 70 more are injured.
The incident was framed as both a horrific tragedy and a terror attack, but it is more than that.
The attack, likely carried out by the Ahvaz National Resistance, a group of Arab separatists seeking autonomy from Tehran, is the latest violent outburst in the ongoing geopolitical battle between Arab Gulf countries and Iran. Ahvaz is a largely Arab town in an overwhelmingly Persian country, steeped in historic ethnic animosity of mutual distrust and resentment between both groups. It is widely thought that Saudi Arabia, with the U.A.E., funds the Ahvaz National Resistance, making it a kind of satellite group for Saudi who are looking to antagonize the Iranian regime every chance it can get.
As Iran and Saudi Arabia fight a series of proxy battles and diplomatic disputes, the Ahvaz attack marks a dramatic escalation in the struggle to determine who will be the regional hegemon. From the war in Yemen, which puts Iran-backed Houthi separatists against the Saudi and U.A.E.-backed Yemeni government to the ongoing diplomatic blockade of Qatar, Saudi and Iran are looking to heat up tensions rather than cool them down.
Last year, Mohammad bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi, warned that he would take the fight against Iran “inside” its borders.
The attack in Ahvaz seemed to have been the first realization of that threat.
The Importance of Ahvaz and September 22
An Iranian soldier holds an infant during the September 22 shooting in Ahvaz, Iran (MORTEZA JABERIAN /AFP)
Ahvaz lies near Iran’s southwestern border with Iraq and carries huge cultural and economic importance to both Iran and Arabs.
It is one of the few regions in Iran that has a significant Arab population, and was one of the first places former Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein invaded in 1980. He hoped to inspire native, Arab Ahvazi residents to rise up against Tehran and side with Iraq in the war. He was wrong: residents of Ahvaz resisted Iraqi occupation and proved that its primary loyalty, at that time, rested with the Iranian government. The date of the attack, September 22, is also the day the Iran-Iraq War started in 1980.
But the regime in Tehran and the residents of Ahvaz have shared a mutual distrust of one another. In the political vacuum that followed the fall of the Shah’s regime in 1979, Ahvaz tried to separate from Iran and form their own state. Tehran was able to clamp down on the rebellion, arresting and killing some of the separatist movement leaders, but the wider separatist sentiment has remained in the region, resulting in sporadic outbursts of violence. In 2005, violent protests erupted in the city over four days, leaving tens dead and dozens wounded.
After that, various Ahvazi separatist groups have staged small-scale attacks against regime targets. But the recent attack is one of the most deadly in Iran for nearly a decade.
Economically, Ahvaz is Iran’s oil lifeline; supplying as much as 90% of its oil. This means, in simple terms, that any unrest in Ahvaz could have massive economic repercussions.
So far two groups have claimed responsibility for the attack: ISIS and the Ahvaz National Resistance (ANR). ISIS’ claim though, is less credible for two reasons.
First, ISIS has been militarily on the decline for years, and as it has lost territory, it has claimed responsibility for more terror attacks abroad to maintain a veneer that it is still a potent force. For example, ISIS falsely claimed that it was responsible for the 2017 Las Vegas shooting that killed 58 people. It was carried out by a middle-aged man named Stephen Paddock who had no ties to the group.
Then, ISIS claimed for a mass shooting in Toronto on July 25, 2018 but police said the perpetrator had no ties to the group. ISIS released a video showed the alleged gunmen in the Ahvaz attack discussing their plans, but in the video, the attackers don’t ever mention ISIS. However false that claim of responsibility may be, ISIS likely recognizes the symbolic importance of Ahvaz as an Arab bastion inside a Persian country, and would want to be seen as a force that defends Arabs against Iran.
The more credible claim comes from the Ahvaz National Resistance, which is an umbrella group of Ahvazi separatist movements.
ANR’s spokesperson, Yaqoob al-Ahvaz said on Iran International TV that "we have no choice but to resist,” though he did not specify which group in ANR’s network carried out the attack. He also told the BBC that “this operation is part of our legitimate resistance and no ordinary citizen was targeted,” though among the dead were onlookers, children, a journalist and conscripts within Iran’s army.
To make matters slightly more complicated, a sub-group of ANR, The Movement of the Arab Struggle for the Liberation of Ahwaz denied responsibility for the attack, saying in a press statement: “The movement of the Arab struggle for the liberation of Ahwaz declares that its military wing Muhyi al-Din al-Nasser Brigades does not bear responsibility for the attack the military offer of the armed forces of the Persian occupation state on Saturday, September 23, 2018.”
Nonetheless, the Iranian government has signaled its belief that the ANR is behind the shooting, summoning diplomats from Britain, Denmark and the Netherlands to confront their role in "hosting some members of the terrorist group,” according to the Iranian foreign ministry.
Denmark and the Netherlands have helped to harbor several leaders of the ANR.
The Tie Between Ahvaz and the Regional Cold War
An Iranian soldier holds a child injured during the September 22 shooting in Ahvaz, Iran (MORTEZA JABERIAN /AFP)
Though hard evidence is difficult to come by, many political commentators and analysts claim that Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are funding Ahvazi separatist groups. Saudi Arabian state media have voiced solidarity with Ahvaz separatist movements, mirroring their rhetoric in arguing that the region is "under occupation by Persian forces.”
Saudi has historically backed Iranian opposition and separatist groups such as the Mujahideen al-Khalq, by funneling them hundreds of millions of dollars worth in solid gold bars and Rolex watches.
If it is indeed true that Saudi and Emirati money is behind the ANR’s militant activity, then it is a grim sign of things to come. This particular attack will not destabilize the Iranian regime or meaningfully shift the momentum of the ongoing geopolitical dispute between Saudi and Iran, but it does up the stakes.
As Iran-backed Houthis continue to fling missiles into Saudi territory, Saudi is showing that it can respond in kind by funding domestic Iranian militant groups that are capable of carrying out deadly attacks.
Both sides are already suffering: Iran’s relentless pursuit for regional clout in Syria and Iraq has pushed its budget beyond its limits. Iran’s currency is experiencing inflation rates that are now close to 20%, while the government has been forced to significantly increase taxes to continue funding its foreign military excursions.
Saudi’s stalling war in Yemen has cost the country billions, and its government has been desperately looking for ways to re-fill its coffers. Up until recently, bin Salman was trying to sell of a chunk of Saudi Aramco, Saudi national oil company and its single-most important economic lifeline, to make up for the financial losses from the war.
The biggest victims of this regional cold war, so far, has been working and middle class Saudis and Iranians, who are being economically choked, and those thousands who have been lost to the fighting in Yemen and the countless millions who have been displaced and are slowly dying in the country of famine, starvation and malnutrition.
