Turkey's relationship with Western institutions and the European Union has gone through various ups and downs. Despite the numerous agreements after World War II, the range of disputes and challenges in relations have increased in recent years.
The differences and difficulties of Turkey's membership in the European Union:
Since the establishment of the Republic of Turkey and after World War II, Ankara has made efforts to participate effectively in multilateral and European structures, the Council of Europe, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and other European institutions. As part of Europe, Turkey joined NATO in 1952.
In 1999 Turkey became a candidate country for the European Union and began to align itself with the European Union. The process of alignment in the following years was satisfactory and there were some improvements, but after that, the convergence has decreased until today. With the expansion of differences in the framework of common foreign and security policy, the rate of alignment in the 2022 report is very low, or 7 percent.
Although it seems that Turkey's accession to the European Union is a strategic choice for Ankara, after the start of Turkey's accession negotiations in 2005, the policy of the member states and political obstructions have slowed down the process. In fact, Turkey can become a member of the European Union when the negotiations are finished and all the member states of the European Union agree on that.
However, despite Turkey's intentions, the criticism and opposition of many European Union members regarding Turkey's democratic situation, opposition, and minorities are continuing. In fact, Turkey has refused to align with most of the policies of the European Union and the two side’s relationship is challenging. So, Turkey is still a candidate deeply inconsistent with the positions and common foreign and security policy of the European Union.
Different priorities and differences over the war in Ukraine:
The European Union, with nearly 500 million people, is a powerful multidimensional international structure. The continuation of the conflict in Ukraine has become one of the most important bilateral issues. Although the crisis could bring the European Union closer to Turkey, Ankara played a key role in finalizing the grain export agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
But Ankara follows priorities and approaches such as the balance between national interests and alignment with the EU, reducing threats, avoiding tension with Russia, extensive foreign trade with Russia, mediation and expansion of continuous political and diplomatic consultations, etc., in the Ukraine crisis. But the European authorities see the war in Ukraine as part of the ideological struggle between democracy and tyranny and autocracy against democracy. Therefore, in order to protect its values, Turkey follows up the implementation of the program in the field of human rights and democracy 2020-2024, supporting democracy, a tougher position towards Russia and even China, deepening relations with democracies, intensifying sanctions against Russia and encouraging countries to implement sanctions.
But Ankara's distance from the foreign and security policy of the European Union and non-compliance with the European Union on Russia can still play an important role in expanding the differences between Turkey and the Union.
Scope of expectations in the field of energy and economy:
The EU is Turkey's number one trading partner and its main foreign direct investment source. Turkey has a good position among the major trading partners of the European Union. Although Turkey does not want trade and economy to be harmed by security and geopolitical interactions, the approaches of Brussels have and will have negative effects on the economy, tourism, reduction of investment, and Turkey’s exports to the European Union.
Turkey's economy is also facing many challenges. But the expectation of Ankara regarding the help of the European Union in the economic field has not been fulfilled.
The deterioration of Turkey's economic situation led to the restoration of relations with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, but not with the European Union. Apart from this, Turkey's goal is to strengthen its strategic position in energy corridors. But this view is either outside the approach of the European Union or is not fully supported by Brussels.
One of the main and current priorities of Europe is to search for gas sources to replace Russian gas and transition to renewable energies. But Turkey's efforts to increase its role in the European Union's energy market have not met much support, for reasons such as Ankara's energy interactions with Moscow, and Turkey's tensions with other powers in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Human rights and internal issues of Turkey:
From the Europeans’ point of view, Turkey has been declining in the fields of democracy, rule of law, and fundamental rights in the last decade and does not meet the criteria for joining the European Union. From Turkey's point of view, Brussels' lack of serious action in accordance with Turkey's desire to destroy terrorist groups has led to Ankara's dissatisfaction.
Also, Brussels' growing emphasis on human rights, democratic institutions, pluralistic government, improving the situation of the Kurds, and rule of law in Turkey has been such that it has actually caused Ankara's dissatisfaction.
Brussels has also reduced its financial support to Turkey due to the deterioration of the civil society environment and the human rights situation. Also, it has not responded properly to Turkey's demands regarding visa liberalization, anti-Islamism, anti-Turkism, Islamophobia, and… In addition, the leaders of Turkey are afraid of the possible help of Brussels to rival political parties and currents which are opponents of Erdogan, and/or supporting his defeat in the upcoming elections of 2023 in Turkey. In addition, anti-westernism is still a part of the beliefs of the party officials and a part of the belief of the Turkish people.
Refugees:
Turkey hosts the largest number of refugees and has spent significant financial resources in this regard. Although Turkey-EU foreign policy consultations and cooperation on international issues are scattered, damaged, and mostly in the field of illegal immigration and EU facilities for refugees in Turkey, refugees have a negative role in relations between Turkey and the European Union. Europe fears that Turkey will continue to use refugees as leverage and/or open its gates to the EU.
Macroig and different foreign policies of both sides:
The Justice and Development Party and its leaders support the revision of the United Nations, the achievement of a multipolar world order and the diversification of partners, an independent foreign policy, and the role of a leading regional power for Turkey. In a way, this has also had an anti-Western approach. Turkey does not want to fully commit to EU sanctions against Iran and Russia, and it wants to pay more attention to China.
Although for Brussels, Turkey is a strategic partner on some issues, the difference in views, the increase in military capabilities, and the export of Turkey's defense industry have increased the country's strategic independence and reduced Ankara's reliance on NATO and the EU.
The difference of opinion on military actions in neighboring conflicts such as Syria (especially the issue of the Syrian Kurds) and Iraq is also an important challenge. Although PKK is on the list of international terrorist organizations of the European Union, it seems that Turkey's continuous insistence on Sweden's non-participation in NATO (due to the presence of PKK in Sweden) is facing many negative reactions in Europe. On the other hand, the interests of Ankara and Brussels in most issues concerning the Middle East and South Caucasus, such as the normalization of relations with Damascus, Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan's relations with Armenia, and the events of 1915, are not the same.
EU strategic cooperation with Athens and the Eastern Mediterranean:
Turkey's relations with some EU member states, especially Greece, Cyprus, and France, are an important obstacle in the relations between Ankara and Brussels. The failure to resolve the Cyprus dispute is still a major obstacle for Turkey to join the European Union.
Greece somehow tries to solve the differences with Turkey through Europe. The increase in defense cooperation between European members and Greece has also fueled concerns in Ankara. Also, the policy of Turkey and the European Union towards the island of Cyprus, the consolidation of the alliance between Cyprus-Egypt-Greece-Israel, and the militarization of the islands of the Aegean Sea; Armament policies, and Cyprus-Armenia-Greece are divergent.
Vision
In fact, despite the differences and various challenges in relations, Brussels and Ankara need each other and have various opportunities and potentials for cooperation in various fields. In addition to this, threats and common interests will lead to the continuation of cooperation and relations. Turkey is still the most democratic country in the Middle East and the door is open for Turkey to join the European community. Ankara is still a strategic and key partner for the European Union in some issues including migration, security, counter-terrorism, and economy.
There are still many geopolitical, economic, cultural, and political opportunities and common interests between Turkey and Europe in some crises and conflicts such as Libya and Yemen. But it seems that the cooperation is practically stopped until the end of the Turkish presidential election in June. In the meantime, the future of relations between Turkey and the EU will be largely determined by the structure of the international system, the fate of Turkey's upcoming elections, and the foreign policy and national security strategies of the EU.
