Former President Donald Trump is on track to win the 2024 presidential election, according to the latest polls and projections.
Trump, who lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden amid allegations of voter fraud and election interference, has maintained a loyal base of supporters and a dominant position in the Republican Party. He has also capitalized on the public discontent with the Biden administration’s handling of the economy, immigration, crime, and foreign policy.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Trump leads Biden by 1.4 percentage points, 45% to 43.6%, as of January 10, 2024. This is a significant reversal from the 2020 election, when Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points, 51.3% to 46.8%. Trump’s advantage is even more pronounced in the battleground states, where he leads by an average of 3.6 percentage points, 47.8% to 44.2%. These states include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which collectively account for 127 electoral votes.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast, which incorporates polls, economic data, and historical trends, gives Trump a 62% chance of winning the electoral college, compared to 38% for Biden. Trump is projected to win 279 electoral votes, nine more than the 270 needed to secure the presidency. Biden is projected to win 259 electoral votes, 39 fewer than his 2020 tally. The forecast also shows that Trump has a 10% chance of winning the popular vote, while Biden has a 90% chance.
Trump’s comeback is largely driven by his ability to appeal to the fears and frustrations of many Americans, especially white voters, who feel threatened by the demographic and cultural changes in the country. Trump has also exploited the weaknesses and failures of the Biden administration, which has struggled to contain the inflation, crime, and immigration crises that have plagued the nation. Trump has presented himself as the only leader who can restore law and order, protect the border, and revive the economy.
Trump’s campaign has also benefited from his legal victories and media exposure. In February 2024, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump was immune from prosecution for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, which was aimed at overturning the 2020 election results. The court also ruled that Trump could not be barred from the ballot under the 14th Amendment, which prohibits anyone who has engaged in insurrection from holding public office. Trump has used these rulings to claim vindication and rally his supporters. He has also maintained a high profile in the media, holding frequent rallies, interviews, and press conferences, while Biden has been largely absent and silent.
Biden’s campaign, on the other hand, has been hampered by his low approval ratings, lack of enthusiasm, and internal divisions. According to the Gallup poll, Biden’s approval rating stands at 38%, the lowest of any president at this point in his term since Harry Truman in 1952. Biden’s disapproval rating is 58%, the highest of any president since Richard Nixon in 1974. Biden’s supporters are also less motivated and confident than Trump’s supporters. According to the Pew Research Center, 76% of Trump supporters say they are very enthusiastic about voting for him, compared to 52% of Biden supporters. Moreover, 83% of Trump supporters say they are very or somewhat confident that he will win, compared to 64% of Biden supporters.
Biden’s campaign has also faced challenges from within his own party, which is split between the moderate and progressive wings. Biden has failed to deliver on many of his campaign promises, such as passing the Build Back Better Act, a $1.75 trillion social spending and climate bill that has been stalled in Congress due to opposition from some Democratic senators. Biden has also faced criticism from some progressives for his handling of foreign policy issues, such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the tensions with China and Russia, and the nuclear deal with Iran. Some Democrats have even called for Biden to step aside and let Vice President Kamala Harris run in his place, but Biden has dismissed such suggestions and vowed to run for a second term.
With less than 10 months to go before the election, the race is still fluid and unpredictable. Many factors could influence the outcome, such as the state of the pandemic, the performance of the economy, the emergence of new candidates or third parties, the occurrence of major events or scandals, and the turnout and preferences of the voters. However, based on the current trends and projections, Trump appears to have the uper hand and the momentum to reclaim the White House in 2024.
