Lebanon’s population is expected to increase to between 4.2 million and 4.5 million by 2021, according to a study released by the social affairs ministry on Monday.
Marking World Population Day on July 11, Minister Asaad Diab held a press conference to announce the release of five studies covering population development, immigration, the economic, educational and environmental situation, gender equality and methodology, said the Daily Star newspaper.
“On July 11, countries and organizations try to spread awareness and information on various population-related issues,” Diab said, calling the issues an “essential concern” of his ministry.
The ministry is organizing a workshop on Wednesday to inform the public of the role of the National Permanent Population Committee, set up by the ministry in 1994.
The committee, whose members prepared the studies released on Tuesday, submitted to the cabinet the first-ever national population policy document.
The document contains a range of demographic information on age, family planning, gender equality, internal and external immigration, the environment and the media’s role in raising public awareness.
“When this document is endorsed,” said Diab, “it will be considered a reference for state bodies and all concerned committees and non-governmental organizations in treating different population issues.”
The six studies appear in a newly released book entitled Population of Lebanon, which was co-authored by six experts. The book states that Lebanon’s only official census, which took place in 1932, was perhaps realistically its “first and last” such survey.
The authors predict that Lebanon’s population would rise to 4.22 million to 4.49 million, based on “low variant, medium variant and high variant” models, from a current 3.3 million.
The book, drawing on data derived from 1970-96, points out that the country’s population almost quadrupled between 1932 and 1996, said the paper.
The study expects the population to become relatively older, saying that “the proportion of the population 65 years or more, under the medium variant, is expected to be 8 percent in 2021 compared to 7 percent in 1996."
In contrast, the population aged 0-20 is expected to decline from 41 percent in 1996 to 33 percent in 2021.
Under the medium variant, it will take the country 17 years to add a little over one million people to its population.
The study expects a period of relatively rapid growth in the number of people entering the working-age bracket – Albawaba.com
