ALBAWABA — According to information leaked to The Washington Post, a classified U.S. intelligence assessment has shown a widening gap between President Donald Trump's goals for Iran and the complicated reality facing Washington's military strategy.
It warns that even a massive military attack is unlikely to topple Iran's deeply ingrained political, religious, and military institutions. The study was written by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), which is the collective voice of all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies.
Trump has frequently demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" and implied that Washington could influence Iran's post-conflict leadership. Analysts have likened his strategy to what some refer to as the "Venezuela model," which involves removing the top leadership while maintaining the larger state structure in order to install a new leadership that is in line with US objectives.
That scenario is contested by the intelligence assessment, which comes to the conclusion that Iran's political structure is based on institutions that can continue to function even in the case of a leadership crisis.
The analysis, which looked at potential outcomes after the assassination of Iran's previous Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, discovered that the country's security apparatus and religious establishment have systems in place to guarantee power continuity. The Assembly of many, an 88-member clerical body, is officially in charge of choosing a new Supreme Leader, but many believe the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would also be crucial to any succession process.
These structures, according to experts, make it unlikely that the Iranian system will collapse quickly. U.S. intelligence services have long recognized the tenacity of the institutions of the Islamic Republic, according to Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution. The ideological underpinnings of Iran's leadership, which center its political identity on opposition to U.S. influence, would also be in conflict with a capitulation to Washington, according to analyst Holly Dagres of the Washington Institute.
The research also cautions that if the current leadership is removed without a strong replacement, a risky power vacuum may result. Concerns on what analysts refer to as the "day-after problem" are raised by U.S. officials quoted in the report, who claim there are little indications of a widespread rebellion capable of forming a new government.
The intelligence findings indicate that Iran's dispersed opposition organizations now lack the legitimacy and organization necessary to rule the nation in the event that the current state structure falls apart.
Additionally, security experts caution that regional and ethnic militias may gain control if central authority is weakened. There are already indications that Kurdish groups in western Iran and Baluch factions in the southeast are becoming more active, which raises concerns that if state authority is undermined, internal strife may break out.
It's unknown if President Trump read the entire intelligence assessment before authorizing the military strike, and Washington officials have refrained from commenting on the leaked memo.
However, according to the study, U.S. goals might eventually center on reducing Iran's military capabilities, including as destroying ballistic missile facilities, eroding navy forces, and stopping Tehran from developing its nuclear program or arming regional allies.
According to analysts, the results may have an impact on next policy discussions in Washington, especially if the battle continues and demand mounts to establish a practical plan for what will happen once the fighting is over.
