To help you prepare for the coming year in the Middle East, Al Bawaba has selected the top 5 stories to watch out for in 2020. From the utilization of social media platforms as a soft power tool to the widespread use of private mercenary forces, 2020 will likely be a year that tests the international community’s ability to constrain authoritarian behavior through legal means.
The Weaponization of Social Media by Regimes
In Dec, 2019, Al Bawaba reported that the Saudi Arabian government, along with a NGO led by the regime’s former head of intelligence, is paying social media influencers to visit the country and post pro-Saudi content. The influencers are often guided by Saudi representatives around tourist sites privately, where they are able to pose in front of ancient buildings or barren desert landscapes.
The strategy is aimed at revamping Saudi’s intenrational image, which has long been tarnished by the regime’s crackdown on activists, its murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi and its ongoing war in Yemen, which the U.N. says constitutes the worst human rights disaster in the world.
the mass recruitment of social media influencers indicates that states are developing more sophisticated strategies that have no obvious answer.
Saudi’s use of social media as a soft power generator reveals that social media platforms like Instagram and Snapchat are powerful tools in the hands of a government. Although repressive regimes, including Saudi, have relied on troll farms and the extensive use of social media bots to sew misinformation and paint itself in a positive light, the mass recruitment of social media influencers indicates that states are developing more sophisticated strategies that have no obvious answer.
In 2020, watch out for more states taking a page out of Saudi’s playbook in recruiting social media influencers and incentivizing independent-but-curated tourist trips. More broadly, watch out for social media platforms’ response to their use as tools in statecraft.
The Ongoing War in Yemen
Rubble smokes from an airstrike in Sanaa (AFP/FILE)
The war in Yemen has no signs of slowing down or ending: each warring party appears more concerned with jostling for a more advantageous strategic position rather than ending the conflict through a negotiation.
And while the war occasionally appears as frontpage news when particularly brutal episodes of the war unfold, the daily reality of the war is steadily ravaging the country. It stands on the brink of famine and most of its population relies on unsteady aid flows to stay alive.
The war, partially a proxy war between Saudi and Iran, may heat up or cool down depending on the tensions between the two-oil rich nations. The war may also evolve into new phases in 2020, as there have been signs the Saudi-assembled coalition backing the Yemeni government is beginning to splinter.
The war in Yemen has no signs of slowing down or ending
The UAE has been busy funding anti-government separatists in Yemen’s south, while it also tried unsuccessfully to seize the strategic Socotra Island. Additionally, domestic elections in the U.K. and U.S. could influence the extent to which each country supports Saudi’s war effort in the forms of arms shipments and logistical support.
On top of all that, Yemen is also quietly becoming a flashpoint in tensions between ISIS and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). What happens on the battlefield and propaganda wars between both jihadi groups could subtly influence the direction and stratgic priorities of each group in other countries.
A Growing Security Dilemma in the Persian Gulf
IRGC fighters (AFP/FILE)
2019 saw a dramatic escalation in tensions between the U.S., Saudi and Iran. The conflict, already claiming lives in Yemen, almost cascaded into a full-blown regional conflict when Trump ordered a military strike on Iran before backing off.
If the diplomatic thaw continues, Qatar could become a crucial mediator between Iran and Saudi, ensuring a tense situation does not escalate to the precipice of war.
There are signs the conflict could ease in intensity in 2020: Saudi and Qatar, who have been locked in a diplomatic standoff since 2017, are slowly warming to one another. On Dec 10, a joint GCC Summit held in Riyadh included senior Qatari officials. If the diplomatic thaw continues, Qatar could become a crucial mediator between Iran and Saudi, ensuring a tense situation does not escalate to the precipice of war.
Around the same time in Dec, the U.S. is poised to send thousands of more troops to Saudi Arabia, which could either be seen as a deterrence mechanism in line with Trump’s ‘maximum pressure strategy against Iran, or as a provocation.
Mercenary Creep on the Battlefield
A Saudi-backed soldier in Hodeidah, Yemen (AFP/FILE)
The use of mercenary forces in the Middle East have been documented in moments, but their influence has consistently grown under the radar of most major news outlets.
In Yemen, they’ve become a critical part of the UAE’s military deployment. Russia has deployed state-linked Wagner mercenaries to Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Sudan and Libya in order to back allies to Moscow and secure relationships with client states.
In Dec 2019, Russian mercenaries downed a U.S. drone monitoring the conflict in Libya, signalling the increased willingness to use mercenaries in direct combat against powerful adversaries. The last time U.S. and Russian forces met was in the Deir Ezzour desert of Syria in Feb 2018.
The use of mercenary forces in the Middle East have been documented in moments, but their influence has consistently grown under the radar of most major news outlets.
There, Wagner mercenaries along with Syrian regime forces attacked U.S.-backed Kurdish militias that contained U.S. advisory personnel. The U.S. struck the Russian and Syrian forces with airstrikes, killing multiple Wagner mercenaries and sparking a short-lived diplomatic crisis between the U.S. and Russia.
As mercenaries are used more extensively in battlefields and foreign policy initiatives are outsourced to them more frequently by various states, they are likely to be involved in more attacks. The challenge in 2020 will be to develop a comprehensive international framework regulating their use—a task that has so far proven difficult to accomplish since most powerful states in the world depend on mercenaries precisely because they are less accountable and offer a measure of plausible deniability.
China’s Uyghur Repression
A mosque shut down by Chinese state forces (Al Bawaba)
One of the biggest global stories of 2017-2019 has been China’s repression of its ethnically Uyghur and Turkic Muslim poulation in the Xinjiang province, which some human rights activists claim is a cultural genocide. Countless mosques, bazaars, cemeteries and residential enclaves have been demolished; Uyghur homes are regularly visited by secret police, family members and neighbors are constantly disappeared for indefinite periods.
Up to three million Uyghurs have been placed in detention and re-education camps, while the remaining population is being heavily surveilled by a combination of state-of-the-art technology and an army of state-employed police and informants. Inside the camps, Uyghurs are psychologically and physically abused as state forces coerce them into giving up their religion.
China’s repression of Uyghurs may not be directly relevant to the Middle East, but the human rights catastrophe in Xinjiang may have spillover effects
China’s repression of Uyghurs may not be directly relevant to the Middle East, but the human rights catastrophe in Xinjiang may have spillover effects. For example, a Uyghur jihadi group mobilized to Idlib, Syria in order to promote their mission to oust China from the Xinjiang province and establish a caliphate there.
By continuing to fight in Syria and make connections with al Qaeda-linked jihadi fighters in the region, the Chinese treatment of Muslims may become a focal point for jihadi groups in the years to come, although this possibility has yet to be reflected in the agendas of international terror groups.
More generally, watch out for China’s expansion of its surveillance and detention strategy, as well as the international response to it.
