ALBAWABA - As tensions rise over the possibility of a military conflict between China and the US—and analysts warn that Beijing is currently better prepared for any sudden conflict—Foreign Policy says that Washington's best option is to adopt what it calls a "smart attrition strategy."
This method would change the Pentagon's doctrine of deterrence by denial to focus on stopping a Chinese invasion of Taiwan without letting things get out of hand.
Not letting things get worse
The strategy deliberately refrains from extensive strikes on China's command-and-control assets, especially those associated with its nuclear deterrent, acknowledging that Beijing might perceive these actions as existential threats to the Communist Party's survival.
The new U.S. strategy, on the other hand, accepts that modern great-power wars are likely to be defined by conventional attrition. It focuses on investing in weapon systems that can deliver sustained, high-volume firepower. This includes making more naval torpedoes, deploying more short-range drones, and building layered air and missile defense systems that can stop invasion forces.
Foreign Policy says that this strategy doesn't get rid of deep-strike capabilities; instead, it redefines them: they should change the battlefield instead of being a quick way to win. It agrees that having better technology alone won't guarantee quick success against a peer enemy like China.
Problems with Putting It into Action
The report says, though, that the U.S. may not be able to use this "smart attrition" method because of the country's political and social divisions over the need to fight China to protect Taiwan.
It says that giving up up to two-thirds of the U.S. navy and air force, as well as thousands of troops, to protect Taiwan, as some war simulations suggest, would not be a long-term strategy that would work for a global power like the U.S.
Foreign Policy says that any realistic strategy must include an honest national conversation about what Americans are willing to give up to help Taiwan become independent. It uses military historian Michael Howard's words to say that the West is "sailing through the fog of peace." The longer it stays away from its last major war, the more likely it is to make a huge mistake.
Getting Ready for a Long War
The report says that if Washington decides to protect Taiwan, it needs to build up its industrial base for a long war, come up with plans that lower the chances of escalation, and be honest with the American people about the cost and purpose of the war.
The article warns that the U.S. military can't keep "sailing through the fog of peace," acting like technological superiority guarantees a quick victory, that escalation is easy to control, or that wartime conditions will be the same as peacetime conditions.
Foreign Policy calls it a "impossible dilemma" for American defense planners: they may force China to escalate by getting ready for the kind of quick, decisive campaign they've always wanted. At the same time, it's getting harder and harder to carry out such big plans because there aren't enough resources.
